The weather data is consistent and it’s apparent the only area worthy of a winter storm warning Sunday will be the Detroit area, the Thumb and the northeast Lower Michigan shoreline.
Winter storm warning for tonight and Sunday in the pink shaded counties. Winter weather advisory for the blue counties, which is most of the rest of Michigan.NOAA
As I expected, the “heavy” snow over five inches will be confined to the far eastern and far southeast fringe of Lower Michigan. From Ann Arbor, Flint and Saginaw the expected snowfall amounts don’t really add up to what Michiganders call a February snowstorm. It’s not just a snow amount with tomorrow’s weather. It’s also about the wind gusts blowing the snow.
Winter storm warning for tonight and Sunday in the pink shaded counties. Winter weather advisory for the blue counties, which is most of the rest of Michigan.NOAA
Here is the latest snowfall forecast from the model that should be very solid now. In fact other models also look very similar to this output.
Total snowfall by 10 p.m. Sunday night, February 16, 2025.NOAA
Let’s call it a five to seven inch snow for the Thumb, Flint, Detroit and Monroe. Also I’d call it a heavy snow over six inches for far northeast Lower Michigan from Oscoda to Alpena, Rogers City and Cheboygan.
The rest of eastern Lower Michigan and northwest Lower Michigan can expect two to four inches of snow tonight and Sunday. This includes Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Traverse City and northwest Lower Michigan.
Southwest Lower Michigan, including Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Muskegon will only have an inch or two of snow by 10 p.m. Sunday.
Remember- after Sunday evening the lake-effect does become heavy in the typical lake-effect spots of southwest Lower and northwest Lower.
The other part of the weather story is the increasing wind Sunday. Much of Lower Michigan will have gusts over 30 mph and briefly up to 40 mph.
The blowing and drifting will be so considerable you won’t really be able to tell how much snow you exactly received. The heavier snow areas of eastern and southeastern Michigan will have significant blowing and drifting due to more fresh, fluffy snow.
Here’s the wind gust forecast showing the strong gusts in yellow sweeping across Lower Michigan Sunday.
Wind gust forecast from midnight tonight to 8 a.m. Monday. Watch the yellow shaded area sweep east across Lower Michigan Sunday, producing a lot of blowing and drifting.NOAA
This all means travel conditions will become hazardous Sunday morning and continue hazardous right on through Sunday night, not so much for continued snow but continued blowing snow.
Detroit, Ann Arbor, Oakland County, the Flint area, the Thumb and the northeast shoreline will have the most dangerous conditions and all day Sunday and all night Sunday night.
Southwest Lower, Including Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Muskegon will have lighter blowing snow Sunday and then an increase in snow and blowing Sunday night and Monday.
Stay safe. If you look out the window and it looks too nasty to drive, stay at home Sunday.
Watch for updates here. The next tasks will be to monitor the snow during the storm and project when the winds diminish enough to end blowing snow.
